A Dent in Middle-Class Entitlements.
For a look at how government programs can be a moral hazard and crowd out private initiative, look no further than nursing home financing.

Medicaid is perhaps best known as the program for "welfare families," single or divorced mothers of small children. But the single largest category nationally (and in most if not all states) in dollar terms is the adult population that needs long-term care, or colloquially, nursing homes.

Not everyone will need such care in their lifetime. This suggests that it's an unpredictable event (much like the possibility of a man dying at, say, 52), so you'd think there might be a good market for insurance policies.

Not quite. There is a long-term care insurance industry, but it market penetration is rather small--under 10 percent, I believe. (There are lots of numbers I could dig out from the hard drive for this essay, but hey, Christmas is less than a week away and there's a lot of work to do before the end of the year.)

Why is long-term care insurance to infrequently used? One reason is the stumbling of the insurance industry; companies have made some mistakes along the way, leading to some bankruptcies and rather unpopular premium increases.

But a more fundamental reason for the paucity of long term care insurance coverage is the moral hazard: why pay for insurance for an event that government will pay for? That's what takes us back to Medicaid, which funds the majority (again, if you want statistics, look 'em up--perhaps in the archives of this blog) of LTC.

Government funds the majority of long-term care? Isn't Medicaid just a program for the poor? Well, yes and no. There are ways to become poor, such as shifting assets to one's children, and thus qualifying for Medicaid. It's easy to rationalize this move by saying "Hey, I've worked hard all my life, paid my taxes, and I deserve this." And of course, when everyone else is doing it, the rare individual who pays for his own care has little impact on the public fisc.

State government politicians, meanwhile, like to get the feds (that is, people who vote in other states) to pick up as much of the tab as possible. So the last couple of decades have seen a cat and mouse game between federal and state officials, as one rule change in DC is met with new accounting gimmicks in the states.

Today, the Wall Street Journal (link for subscribers) says that the Washington branch of the political family is thinking of changing the rules again.

Now Congress wants to make it harder for some people who do have assets to get Medicaid to pay their nursing-home bills. The changes, already approved by the House and now before the Senate, would:

- Force people who transfer assets to wait awhile before Medicaid will cover their nursing-home care.

- Bar a person with equity in a home of more than $500,000 from Medicaid coverage. States can raise the limit to $750,000. Currently, in most cases, a person can own a home of any value and still have their nursing-home bills covered.

- Require states to look for inappropriate asset transfers during the five years before a Medicaid application, instead of the current three years.

- Classify certain annuities as assets that trigger the waiting period; annuities sometimes are used to turn large assets into small, Medicaid-friendly payouts.


All good measures, with this goal: "The changes could force the elderly and their caretakers to manage their funds more cautiously, perhaps by encouraging people with means to buy long-term-care insurance or to use the equity in their homes to pay nursing-home bills."

There's no easy way out of the LTC mess. Though technology can help (in-home monitors and the like), good long-term care is by nature labor intensive, which means expensive. Thanks to advances in science and medicine, as well as rising incomes, people are living longer. That's all good.

Demographic and lifestyle patterns have been changing for decades, changes that signal an increasing reliance on paid help. Women, historically the providers of LTC to family members, are overwhelmingly in the paid workforce, often unable to do much to help. Children from a family scatter across the country, making it hard for family members to pitch in together to help mom and pop. So the use of paid help, whether inside a nursing home or out, funded by insurance or by taxpayers, has increased, and will continue to increase, especially given that the "old old" (over 80 years) group is the fastest growing part of the U.S. population.

The ideal solution might be the development of a strong, vigorous, widely-bought-into market for long-term care insurance. But getting there requires dealing with a knot of problems across several policy issues, including regular health insurance and the federal tax code.

By contrast, reforming k-12 education to promote achievement, cost containment, and consumer choice looks easy.

Labels: Health care, Medicaid

(permalink)