The idea that Republicans can’t find a candidate to take on Debbie “Dangerously Incompetent” Stabenow is depressing enough. But Michiganders are not alone in their reluctance to oust a non-entity of a senator, as long as that senator is a woman. Here in Minnesota, the conventional wisdom is that Sen. Amy Klobuchar is unbeatable. It’s enough to make me wonder if Democratic female senators are simply unbeatable. A stroll through history gave me some modest hope.

According to a history page provided by the U.S. Senate, there have been 39 women senators in American history. (Too few? Probably, but that’s a story for another day.)

Of the 39, seven were appointed after the incumbent senator (usually though not always their husband) died. All of these seven were in office for less than one year–in one unusual case, all of one day–and none stood for election to a six-year term. Incidentally, the last time a caretaker opted to stand down was 1992.

Another three won a special election to fill a vacant term, and served less than a year. They did not seek a full term, however. The last time this happened? 1954.

Another three women were appointed to serve terms as less than a year, and having tasted power, decided they liked it. But they lost when they went for a full six-year term. (Two lost in the primary, one lost in the general election.)

Four female senators entered office as caretakers and then went on win at least one six-year term. Two entered office because their husbands died; one because her father left office. The final one was appointed because First Lady-turned-Senator Hillary Clinton took a job in the Obama Administration.

Which brings us to the two females who won a six-year term (no need for a caretaker spot), but arguably on the coattails of their high-profile husbands: Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Elizabeth Dole. Clinton won a second term; Dole did not.

Finally we have the stand-alone candidates, 19 women who won election to the U.S. Senate (and often the U.S. House first) on their own merit, without any assistance from a male family member who paved the way. (One possible exception: Nancy Kassabum, whose father ran a doomed presidential campaign against FDR four decades before she was elected to the Senate.)

So what’s the history of partisan turnover when women senators stand for re-election? Well, six of the 39 female senators are in their first term, meaning they have not faced a re-election challenge.

Two Democratic women lost to Republican challengers (both men): Carol Mosely Braun (Illinois, 1998) and Blanche Lincoln (Arkansas, 2010).

Three Republican women lost to Democratic challengers: Margaret Chase Smith (Maine, 1972), Paula Hawkins (Florida, 1986), and Elizabeth Dole (North Carolina, 2008). Dole is the only woman who have lost as an incumbent to another woman.

What does this mean for Dangerous Debbie? Any prediction at this point is a stretch, but neither blue-to-red conversions should offer much to Republicans. The Illinois senator was spectacularly ineffective and corrupt, while the lady from Arkansas was caught in the full force of a rebellion against ObamaCare and other actions of Democratic overreach.

In other words, we’ve got too few cases to generalize. But the key to 2012 at this point is that some credible challenger has to step up.

First published by the Detroit News: http://apps.detnews.com/apps/blogs/watercooler/index.php?blogid=2366