Do presidential debates matter?
I thought of that when I came across a comment from an online friend of mine. I don’t know his political views. He’s knowledgeable enough about economics that he should vote Republican more often than not, but he’s also a public employee who thinks he has suffered under Michigan’s Republican legislature, so he may vote Democratic.
Here’s what he said: “The debates are over. Let the expressions of confirmation bias begin.”
There’s something to that. It’s human nature to see what you want to see, to see things that confirm what you already know. It’s a creation of both the right and the left. Still, it’s possible to break out of confirmation bias. We know that dueling press conferences (excuse me, debates) can, at the last set people abuzz and influence a candidate’s public image. (See: “Eastern Europe is not dominated by the Soviet Union” and “Mr. Reagan and I will both raise your taxes; he won’t say it, I just did.”)
From what I’ve read from Republicans, Romney “mopped the floor” with Obama. The Daily Kos, on the other hand, continues to attack Romney more than they praise Obama. The more things change. . . .
That said, a marginal change in public opinion is sometimes all it takes to make a difference in a campaign. One down, two to go. I just hope we don’t get another middle-aged guy asking one of the candidates what he would do for “us, your children.”